The end of vagueness : technological epistemicism, surveillance capitalism, and explainable Artificial Intelligence

Artificial Intelligence (AI) pervades humanity in 2022, and it is notoriously difficult to understand how certain aspects of it work. There is a movement—Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI)—to develop new methods for explaining the behaviours of AI systems. We aim to highlight one important philosophical significance of XAI—it has a role to play in the elimination of vagueness. To show this, consider that the use of AI in what has been labeled surveillance capitalism has resulted in humans quickly gaining the capability to identify and classify most of the occasions in which languages are used. We show that the knowability of this information is incompatible with what a certain theory of vagueness—epistemicism—says about vagueness. We argue that one way the epistemicist could respond to this threat is to claim that this process brought about the end of vagueness. However, we suggest an alternative interpretation, namely that epistemicism is false, but there is a weaker doctrine we dub technological epistemicism, which is the view that vagueness is due to ignorance of linguistic usage, but the ignorance can be overcome. The idea is that knowing more of the relevant data and how to process it enables us to know the semantic values of our words and sentences with higher confidence and precision. Finally, we argue that humans are probably not going to believe what future AI algorithms tell us about the sharp boundaries of our vague words unless the AI involved can be explained in terms understandable by humans. That is, if people are going to accept that AI can tell them about the sharp boundaries of the meanings of their words, then it is going to have to be XAI.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Local CpG density affects the trajectory and variance of age-associated DNA methylation changes

Acknowledgements We thank Riccardo Marioni, Chris Haley, Ailith Ewing, David Porteous, Chris Ponting, Rob Illingworth, Tamir Chandra, Sara Hagg, Yunzhang Wang, Chantriolnt-Andreas Kapourani, Nick Gilbert, Hannes Becher and members of the Sproul lab for helpful discussions about the study and the manuscript. This work has made use of the resources provided by the University of Edinburgh digital research services and the MRC IGC compute cluster. We are grateful to all the families who took part in the Generation Scotland study along with the general practitioners and the Scottish School of Primary Care for their help in recruiting them, and the entire Generation Scotland team, which includes interviewers, computer and laboratory technicians, clerical workers, research scientists, volunteers, managers, receptionists, healthcare assistants, and nurses. Peer review information Anahita Bishop and Kevin Pang were the primary editors of this article and managed its editorial process and peer review in collaboration with the rest of the editorial team. Review history The review history is available as Additional file 3. Funding DS is a Cancer Research UK Career Development fellow (reference C47648/A20837), and work in his laboratory is also supported by an MRC university grant to the MRC Human Genetics Unit. LK is a cross-disciplinary postdoctoral fellow supported by funding from the University of Edinburgh and Medical Research Council (MC_UU_00009/2). S.R.C. and I.J.D. were supported by a National Institutes of Health (NIH) research grant R01AG054628, and S.R.C is supported by a Sir Henry Dale Fellowship jointly funded by the Wellcome Trust and the Royal Society (221890/Z/20/Z). AMM is supported by the Wellcome Trust (104036/Z/14/Z, 216767/Z/19/Z, 220857/Z/20/Z) and UKRI MRC (MC_PC_17209, MR/S035818/1). PMV acknowledges support from the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (1113400) and the Australian Research Council (FL180100072). DMH is supported by a Sir Henry Wellcome Postdoctoral Fellowship (Reference 213674/Z/18/Z). We thank the LBC1936 participants and team members who contributed to the study. Further study information can be found at https://www.ed.ac.uk/lothian-birth-cohorts. The LBC1936 is supported by a jointly funded grant from the BBSRC and ESRC (BB/W008793/1), and also by Age UK (Disconnected Mind project), the Medical Research Council (G0701120, G1001245, MR/M013111/1, MR/R024065/1), and the University of Edinburgh. Genotyping of LBC1936 was funded by the BBSRC (BB/F019394/1), and methylation typing of LBC1936 was supported by Centre for Cognitive Ageing and Cognitive Epidemiology (Pilot Fund award), Age UK, The Wellcome Trust Institutional Strategic Support Fund, The University of Edinburgh, and The University of Queensland. Work on Generation Scotland was supported by a Wellcome Strategic Award “STratifying Resilience and Depression Longitudinally” (STRADL; 104036/Z/14/Z) to AMM, KLE, and others, and an MRC Mental Health Data Pathfinder Grant (MC_PC_17209) to AMM. Generation Scotland received core support from the Chief Scientist Office of the Scottish Government Health Directorates (CZD/16/6) and the Scottish Funding Council (HR03006). DNA methylation profiling and analysis of the GS:SFHS samples was supported by Wellcome Investigator Award 220857/Z/20/Z and Grant 104036/Z/14/Z (PI: AM McIntosh) and through funding from NARSAD (Ref: 27404; awardee: Dr DM Howard) and the Royal College of Physicians of Edinburgh (Sim Fellowship; Awardee: Dr HC Whalley).Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Activin type I receptor polymorphisms and body composition in older individuals with sarcopenia—Analyses from the LACE randomised controlled trial

Background: Ageing is associated with changes in body composition including an overall reduction in muscle mass and a proportionate increase in fat mass. Sarcopenia is characterised by losses in both muscle mass and strength. Body composition and muscle strength are at least in part genetically determined, consequently polymorphisms in pathways important in muscle biology (e.g., the activin/myostatin signalling pathway) are hypothesised to contribute to the development of sarcopenia.Methods: We compared regional body composition measured by DXA with genotypes for two polymorphisms (rs10783486, minor allele frequency (MAF) =0.26 and rs2854464, MAF =0.26) in the activin 1B receptor (ACVR1B) determined by PCR in a cross-sectional analysis of DNA from 110 older individuals with sarcopenia from the LACE trial.Results: Neither muscle mass nor strength showed any significant associations with either genotype in this cohort. Initial analysis of rs10783486 showed that males with the AA/AG genotype were taller than GG males (174±7cm vs 170±5cm, p=0.023) and had higher arm fat mass, (median higher by 15%, p=0.008), and leg fat mass (median higher by 14%, p=0.042). After correcting for height, arm fat mass remained significantly higher (median higher by 4% padj=0.024). No associations (adjusted or unadjusted) were seen in females.Similar analysis of the rs2854464 allele showed a similar pattern with the presence of the minor allele (GG/AG) being associated with greater height (GG/AG = 174±7 cm vs AA = 170 ±5cm, p=0.017) and greater arm fat mass (median higher by 16%, p=0.023). Again, the difference in arm fat remained after correction for height. No similar associations were seen in females analysed alone.Conclusion: These data suggest that polymorphic variation in the ACVR1B locus could be associated with body composition in older males. The activin/myostatin pathway might offer a novel potential target to prevent fat accumulation in older individuals

Effect of perindopril or leucine on physical performance in older people with sarcopenia: the LACE randomized controlled trial

Acknowledgements: AAS, TA and MDW acknowledge support from the NIHR Newcastle Biomedical Research Centre. AA acknowledges support from the Health Services Research Unit which is core funded by the Chief Scientist Office of the Scottish Government Health and Social Care Directorate. The authors acknowledge support from the NIHR Ageing Clinical Research Network and the NHS Scotland Support for Science programme, The authors would also thank the efforts of all the research nurses and other ants to the trial, all the participants, and all the staff of the Tayside Clinical Trials Unit for their support of the trial. Funding: The LACE trial (project reference 13/53/03) is funded by the Efficacy and Mechanism Evaluation (EME) Programme, an MRC and NIHR partnership. The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the MRC, NIHR or the Department of Health and Social Care.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Effects of antiplatelet therapy on stroke risk by brain imaging features of intracerebral haemorrhage and cerebral small vessel diseases: subgroup analyses of the RESTART randomised, open-label trial

Background Findings from the RESTART trial suggest that starting antiplatelet therapy might reduce the risk of recurrent symptomatic intracerebral haemorrhage compared with avoiding antiplatelet therapy. Brain imaging features of intracerebral haemorrhage and cerebral small vessel diseases (such as cerebral microbleeds) are associated with greater risks of recurrent intracerebral haemorrhage. We did subgroup analyses of the RESTART trial to explore whether these brain imaging features modify the effects of antiplatelet therapy

Mortality Among Adults With Cancer Undergoing Chemotherapy or Immunotherapy and Infected With COVID-19

Importance: Large cohorts of patients with active cancers and COVID-19 infection are needed to provide evidence of the association of recent cancer treatment and cancer type with COVID-19 mortality. // Objective: To evaluate whether systemic anticancer treatments (SACTs), tumor subtypes, patient demographic characteristics (age and sex), and comorbidities are associated with COVID-19 mortality. // Design, Setting, and Participants: The UK Coronavirus Cancer Monitoring Project (UKCCMP) is a prospective cohort study conducted at 69 UK cancer hospitals among adult patients (≥18 years) with an active cancer and a clinical diagnosis of COVID-19. Patients registered from March 18 to August 1, 2020, were included in this analysis. // Exposures: SACT, tumor subtype, patient demographic characteristics (eg, age, sex, body mass index, race and ethnicity, smoking history), and comorbidities were investigated. // Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary end point was all-cause mortality within the primary hospitalization. // Results: Overall, 2515 of 2786 patients registered during the study period were included; 1464 (58%) were men; and the median (IQR) age was 72 (62-80) years. The mortality rate was 38% (966 patients). The data suggest an association between higher mortality in patients with hematological malignant neoplasms irrespective of recent SACT, particularly in those with acute leukemias or myelodysplastic syndrome (OR, 2.16; 95% CI, 1.30-3.60) and myeloma or plasmacytoma (OR, 1.53; 95% CI, 1.04-2.26). Lung cancer was also significantly associated with higher COVID-19–related mortality (OR, 1.58; 95% CI, 1.11-2.25). No association between higher mortality and receiving chemotherapy in the 4 weeks before COVID-19 diagnosis was observed after correcting for the crucial confounders of age, sex, and comorbidities. An association between lower mortality and receiving immunotherapy in the 4 weeks before COVID-19 diagnosis was observed (immunotherapy vs no cancer therapy: OR, 0.52; 95% CI, 0.31-0.86). // Conclusions and Relevance: The findings of this study of patients with active cancer suggest that recent SACT is not associated with inferior outcomes from COVID-19 infection. This has relevance for the care of patients with cancer requiring treatment, particularly in countries experiencing an increase in COVID-19 case numbers. Important differences in outcomes among patients with hematological and lung cancers were observed

Prevalence and architecture of de novo mutations in developmental disorders.

The genomes of individuals with severe, undiagnosed developmental disorders are enriched in damaging de novo mutations (DNMs) in developmentally important genes. Here we have sequenced the exomes of 4,293 families containing individuals with developmental disorders, and meta-analysed these data with data from another 3,287 individuals with similar disorders. We show that the most important factors influencing the diagnostic yield of DNMs are the sex of the affected individual, the relatedness of their parents, whether close relatives are affected and the parental ages. We identified 94 genes enriched in damaging DNMs, including 14 that previously lacked compelling evidence of involvement in developmental disorders. We have also characterized the phenotypic diversity among these disorders. We estimate that 42% of our cohort carry pathogenic DNMs in coding sequences; approximately half of these DNMs disrupt gene function and the remainder result in altered protein function. We estimate that developmental disorders caused by DNMs have an average prevalence of 1 in 213 to 1 in 448 births, depending on parental age. Given current global demographics, this equates to almost 400,000 children born per year

Multiple novel prostate cancer susceptibility signals identified by fine-mapping of known risk loci among Europeans

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified numerous common prostate cancer (PrCa) susceptibility loci. We have fine-mapped 64 GWAS regions known at the conclusion of the iCOGS study using large-scale genotyping and imputation in 25 723 PrCa cases and 26 274 controls of European ancestry. We detected evidence for multiple independent signals at 16 regions, 12 of which contained additional newly identified significant associations. A single signal comprising a spectrum of correlated variation was observed at 39 regions; 35 of which are now described by a novel more significantly associated lead SNP, while the originally reported variant remained as the lead SNP only in 4 regions. We also confirmed two association signals in Europeans that had been previously reported only in East-Asian GWAS. Based on statistical evidence and linkage disequilibrium (LD) structure, we have curated and narrowed down the list of the most likely candidate causal variants for each region. Functional annotation using data from ENCODE filtered for PrCa cell lines and eQTL analysis demonstrated significant enrichment for overlap with bio-features within this set. By incorporating the novel risk variants identified here alongside the refined data for existing association signals, we estimate that these loci now explain ∼38.9% of the familial relative risk of PrCa, an 8.9% improvement over the previously reported GWAS tag SNPs. This suggests that a significant fraction of the heritability of PrCa may have been hidden during the discovery phase of GWAS, in particular due to the presence of multiple independent signals within the same regio